The fat tail problem arises because traditional finance theory
Sign in / Join NowThe S 500 In February: A Dramatic Rise In Negative Tail RiskFeb.But the estimated probability of a decline of 5% or more has increased dramatically to 19.1%.Simulation results show the increase in negative tail risk arises because recent increases in stock prices have outpaced earnings gains, thus resulting in elevated valuations.C J estimates a 9.7% chance the S 500 Index will close the month of February in correction territory. »But as we cannot predict such external influences very well iphone cases, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one. » Benoit MandelbrotThe C J Monte Carlo Simulation ModelC J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S 500. Traditional stock market models suffer from a number of problems including fat tails iphone cases0, serial correlation iphone cases, and the failure to account for volatility clustering. The fat tail problem arises because traditional finance theory uses the normal distribution.
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